Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 0.055093 0.062972 0.071830 0.082573 0.095315 0.110021 0.128393
2025-11-16 0.042933 0.052489 0.064151 0.079592 0.099744 0.125490 0.161425
2025-11-23 0.034463 0.044594 0.057857 0.076830 0.103831 0.141764 0.200729
2025-11-30 0.028800 0.039236 0.053811 0.076234 0.110942 0.164554 0.257733
2025-12-07 0.024351 0.034749 0.050152 0.075514 0.118061 0.190235 0.330878
2025-12-14 0.020328 0.030194 0.045581 0.072502 0.121112 0.211173 0.407434
2025-12-21 0.016454 0.025239 0.039524 0.065798 0.116278 0.217220 0.460370
2025-12-28 0.014394 0.022861 0.037266 0.065274 0.123003 0.249143 0.591964
2026-01-04 0.012923 0.021230 0.036008 0.066383 0.133655 0.295021 0.795635
2026-01-11 0.011547 0.019549 0.034368 0.066414 0.142318 0.341497 1.047255
2026-01-18 0.010369 0.018048 0.032808 0.066292 0.150901 0.393554 1.379982
2026-01-25 0.009186 0.016363 0.030600 0.064251 0.154220 0.433634 1.725281
2026-02-01 0.008032 0.014604 0.028005 0.060870 0.153381 0.462877 2.084094
2026-02-08 0.007340 0.013669 0.027004 0.061173 0.163561 0.539375 2.856711
2026-02-15 0.006712 0.012777 0.025948 0.061119 0.173004 0.622924 3.908761
2026-02-22 0.006243 0.012153 0.025399 0.062326 0.187542 0.744200 5.694928
2026-03-01 0.005804 0.011537 0.024761 0.063156 0.201564 0.881038 8.317836
2026-03-08 0.005305 0.010718 0.023501 0.061850 0.207224 0.983382 11.221214
2026-03-15 0.004700 0.009591 0.021303 0.057149 0.197324 0.986406 12.762157
2026-03-22 0.004394 0.009118 0.020705 0.057408 0.208928 1.146362 18.796120
2026-03-29 0.004172 0.008816 0.020505 0.058955 0.227583 1.390689 30.635484
2026-04-05 0.003930 0.008436 0.020036 0.059480 0.242094 1.634915 48.503755
2026-04-12 0.003703 0.008066 0.019537 0.059787 0.256106 1.910637 78.259913